Thursday, September 11, 2008

Russia's Resurgence

Russia's actions over the past few months indicate a clear re-awakening of their imperial ambitions.

The pundits, analysts and colleagues with whom I've spoken seem to think that this is much ado about little. Common arguments cite Russia's declining demographics, single-sector economy (energy) and two-decades of lap-dog status. This, however, is a mistake.

Russia is on the rebound as an actor in International Politics. Their defense spending has been increasing by some 30% a year , granted it is still not at 1980's levels, but it could be within another decade. It is true that their economy is largely dependent on energy exporting, but we must remember that their cold-war economy was, for all practical purposes, autarkic. The huge infusion of foreign reserves that they will accumulate selling off their energy resources in the next 20 years will be more than ample for them to fund their large-power ambitions. Lastly, let us not forget that they still sit on the second largest nuclear stockpile in the world.

Russia's power is real and growing. Failing to recognize this obvious reality would be as embarrassing as failing to recognize their decline in the late 1980's. The consequences of this oversight now, however, would be far more dire than then. Rather than a pleasant surprise we would be faced with a strong imperialist nation led by a brilliant, calculating and power-driven leader. Mr. Medvedev of course.

So what should we do? The WRONG choice would be to isolate Russia. Threatening Russia with exclusion from international institutions will only give pretense for further hostility and provide fodder for Putin's portrayal of a West that is "out to get" Russia. This is a fable he has been meticulously weaving for the Russian people over the past 8 years, and one that they now almost whole-heatedly believe. No, trying to treat Russia as the naughty toddler will not work.

At this crossroads a pragmatic, four-pronged approach is necessary. The first is to continue, at pace, with Russia's accession to the WTO and maintain its position in the G8. International institutions only hold leverage over those states who are members. Casting Russia out would deprive the world of legitimate forums for condemning aggressive acts by Russia. If Russia realizes and becomes accustomed to the economic "carrot" of free trade through the WTO they will be less likely to engage in actions that might jeopardize that new-found prosperity.

Secondly, the world must match, move for move, Russia's military buildups. Clearly, arms races are a prisoner's dilemma. However, if Russia has chosen to "defect" from disarmament, we must do the same. Ukraine and Georgia must be brought into NATO as quickly as possible so that multi-national NATO troops can be stationed on their soil. There is no single greater deterrent to Russia's expansionists aims than this. Ukraine and Georgia may not be "perfect democracies", but in games of geo-political chess, these inadequacies can be overlooked. This "stick" is an unfortunate but necessary counterpart to the "carrot" of inclusion.

Thirdly, our European allies must end their dependence on Russian energy resources. Vladimir Putin has been orchestrating Russia's resurgence for 8 years, and it is no accident that as of 2005 Russia accounted for 50% of the EU's gas imports and 30% of its oil imports. This has given Russia a huge strategic advantage over Europe and has drastically limited the range of choices with which Europe, and NATO, can respond to Russian aggression. Make no mistake, even though a large part of Russia's foreign reserves flow from Europe, Europe currently needs Russia far more than Russia needs Europe, especially when there are other markets for their energy.

This leads me to my last point. We must win China. During the cold-war China was the most important secondary player after the US and the USSR. In the coming order, they will be a player on par with the US, the EU and Russia. We must make sure that China's sympathies and markets do not belong to Russia. China has the potential to be the greatest counter-balance to a resurgent Russia, but a Sino-Russian alliance could directly challenge NATO. Fortunately, China has not only made far more important steps towards integration into the International Order than Russia, but has also displayed few imperialistic ambitions. Even Taiwan, to whom China has a far stronger claim than Russia does to say, Georgia, has achieved a relatively stable and peaceful status quo. However, we must not risk alienating China by hindering their desire to become a more actively player in international politics. With increasing power comes increasing voice. China has the former and wants the latter. We should not deny it to them, doing so could potentially lead to a far more dangerous world.

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